mikhailosherov (mikhailosherov) wrote,
mikhailosherov
mikhailosherov

Jordan - the Last hope of the West

Jordan - the Last hope of the West

http://all-rss.com/item-854157-opinion-mikhail-osherov-the-last-hope-of-the-west/

One of the ideas of the us administration - creation in Syria no-fly zone, which will be based Syrian fighters. Under the «umbrella» of the United States. On the border with Jordan. Under the protection of U.S. missiles and American aircraft, based in Jordan. Itself Jordan is a state with a small population and with a relatively small army, serious danger to Syria. But as the state, bordering to the South with one of the countries of anti-Syrian coalition with Saudi Arabia, as a state having access to the sea, a sea port and a good transport infrastructure, as a state having friendly relations with Israel and allied with the USA and England - the former metropolis, Jordan may be a quite serious potential threat to Syria, including as base of a possible foreign intervention. Now in Jordan are very large international military exercises «Snitch lion - 2013». More than 15 thousand soldiers from 18 countries of the world. List of countries by itself is extremely interesting. USA, England, France, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Canada, Czech Republic, Lebanon, Pakistan, Poland and Yemen. The beginning of this list is the country's anti-Syrian coalition. The announced program of exercises is also very interesting. The exercises will include combat operations, as well as the implementation of technical and humanitarian missions. At a press conference dedicated to the beginning of the exercises, American and Jordanian military stressed that «the maneuvers are not linked with the civil war in Syria, the teachings of counter-terrorism work out scenarios and fighting insurgencies». Earlier, the U.S. reported that by the beginning of the exercises will send in Jordan battery of missile interceptors Patriot and F-16 aircrafts, which together with its American personnel - 4,5 thousand soldiers will remain in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and after the completion of the maneuvers. According to one Western military officials, military contingents of the above countries will remain in Jordan and after completion of the exercises, «the case of a necessity to intervene in Syria». Directly maneuvers will last two weeks. They will be held on landfills of the Jordanian army, in schools and in command points. «Without a doubt, the exercises this year will be used for preparing for possible military action in Syria, said one of the representatives of the Jordanian leadership, the words quoted by the Israeli portal Ynet. - Jordan should be ready for any abnormal developments on this front.» So, now in Jordan flung additional 15 thousand soldiers from different countries, mainly from the countries of the anti-Syrian coalition, with the latest equipment. Despite the fact that military equipment and hardware, including the latest F-16 aircrafts and missile systems «patriot»cannot be involved in the declared at the press conference the objectives of the «counter-terrorism scenarios and fighting insurgencies». Any normal military in their right mind will use against terrorists and insurgents nor the F-16 aircrafts, nor missile system «patriot». This is from the series «from guns on sparrows» or «hammer nails with a microscope». But for the opposition of another state with a strong ground forces and aviation, aircraft F-16 and missile systems «patriot» can be applied. Such an increase in the forces of the anti-Syrian coalition in the immediate proximity of the borders with Syria inevitably makes the Syrian authorities somehow respond to this new threat. This means at least a distraction of some forces of the Syrian army from combat operations against militants in the North and East. It also means a need for strengthening the border with Jordan. Most likely, Jordan, Royal dynasty in which ethnically does not belong to the majority population of the country, is unlikely to dare to attack Syria actually lined with Israel. The majority of the population of Jordan are Palestinians, the Palestinian Arabs, not quite friendly configured towards Israel. Syrian radio, the Syrian media in Arabic constantly denounce Israeli aggression against Syria, and so the sympathy of many inhabitants of the region on the side of Syria and against anti-Syrian coalition. The Syrian leadership over the heads of the governments of the countries appeals to the «Arab street» and makes it pretty successfully. Again, most likely, directly Jordan to attack more powerful Syria is not solved. Perhaps in coalition with Israel. But to become the base for antisiriyskih forces, for Syrian militants, to open the border, which is technically very difficult to close, the border of Syria and Jordan are the mountains and desert of Jordan can do that, and in the nearest time, otherwise the militants in the North and East of Syria would be defeated regular Syrian army and the Syrian people. One of the ideas of the us administration - creation in Syria no-fly zone, which will be based Syrian fighters. Under the «umbrella» of the United States. On the border with Jordan. Under the protection of U.S. missiles and American aircraft, based in Jordan. Agency «Interfax» informs: «the Us military prompt you to install the «limited» no-fly zone over Syria.» «To create a zone that is called a «zone free from warfare»should formally be the protection of refugees and the insurgents, who are trained on Jordanian territory by American instructors». «The us air force aircraft, the newspaper said, equipped with rockets of a class «air-air», that will allow them to destroy targets over the territory of Syria from a distance and without Syrian invasion of space. However, they can and go into Syrian airspace, if there is a threat of us goals on Jordanian territory by the Syrian aircraft, running in the direction of Jordan, sources told the wall street journal». And this is not the armed forces of Jordan, is this the same American planes and missiles that have to stay together with American pilots and American operators rocket launchers after the «exercises» in Jordan. How such an aggravation of relations with Syria will enjoy the Jordanian people, who can be drawn into this adventure, as in Jordan can again resume uprisings that there were already held in 2011 in the beginning of the «Arab spring»how can worsen the internal situation in Jordan at this stage it is still depends mainly not from the Jordanian people, and from the decisions of the Royal family. But besides the king of Jordan has «Arab street», there are people of Jordan, which can also have its say in case of escalation on the Northern border, in the case when the Jordanian people will understand that it retract into unnecessary war with Syria. Jordan is a very uncertain new factor in the Syrian conflict, a factor that also double-edged. All countries involved in the aggression against Syria, already have their own internal problems - from unrest in Turkey to change of power in Qatar, the change of power planned, but the ongoing surprisingly timely. If anything in Saudi Arabia, such as the expected death of the old king and disassembly of the successors of his throne, or shaken to the Jordanian throne, then you will believe in mystical influence of Syrian events throughout the middle East. Now we pile of news coming from Syria, you need to carefully watch and listen to news of the districts of Damascus and Aleppo, and news from Israel and Jordan. If a few months from Israel and Jordan would not act any news related with Syria, then the authority of the legitimate Syrian government will be restored on the whole territory of Syria, Syria could emerge from this conflict cohesive and strong, unified state with a strong and experienced army. If we hear of any aggressive actions by Israel and Jordan or by foreign military forces, concentrated in Jordan, then there will be a sharp escalation of the military conflict with uncertain outcome. The Syrian army is not so much reserves, to neutralize the efforts of one Syrian army without external support potential threat posed by Jordan would be quite difficult. In the case of localization of the Syrian conflict victory of the legitimate authorities in Syria close and real. In the case of internalization of Syrian involvement of many foreign States may become the beginning of a large-scale regional war, which in the end may not be the winners.

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P.S. Перевод - не мой. М.О.
Tags: Ближний Восток, Иордания, Сирия, геополитика, политика, прогноз
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